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The slow, ineluctable decline of NATO and the rapid rise of CFSP by Simon Duke Abstract Debates over the future of EU-NATO relations often tend to be polarising. On the one hand there are those who see the EU as primarily a ‘soft security' organisation, while NATO's primary responsibility is to address the ‘harder' security dilemmas. On the other hand there are those who see NATO as an organisation in search of a mission in a world that has moved on since the Cold War when it was the pre-eminent (western) security organisation. Whilst having more sympathy with the second argument, it is argued that relations between the two organisations are not a zero-sum game, but rather a process that will either transform NATO into a global security actor or one that will see its ineluctable decline. Similarly, on the EU side the rapid development of civilian and military crisis management capabilities has the potential to complement other aspects of the Union's work that underpin regional and global stability. The potential of the respective organisations to adapt to changed notions of security and the global nature of the demands made upon them, will determine their relevance or marginalisation. It is recognised that there are variables on both sides that may halt decline or progress, as well as a number of common problems that relate to the two organisations. Two factors in particular will influence this process: first, the Cyprus question has already proven a significant impediment in the growth of EU-NATO relations and, if unresolved, may continue to do so and; second, the more general strategic ambiguities surrounding U.S-EU relations and more precise questions of interoperability, will have a profound influence on shaping relations between the institutions. The paper does not ignore the institutional links and regular consultation between the two organisations that has developed over the last few years, but it is argued that there is little of real substance to come out of the veneer of cooperation, precisely because the gnawing issue of the mutual compatibility of the two organisations remains.
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